Episode Transcript:
Intro/Closing: 00:03
Welcome to the Real Talk Retirement Show, where we explore the financial side of retirement and beyond. Whether you’re currently retired or planning for the future, we offer real, relatable conversations about money and personal finances. Most importantly, we dive into all these topics using Real Talk. Now, let’s get real about your money and your retirement.
Brian Graff: 00:29
Welcome everyone to episode number 12 of the Real Talk Retirement Show. We are Brian Graff and Tracy Burke from Conrad Siegel. And Tracy, for the final episode of the year, we thought we’d have a little fun today and look at some financial statistics that at least you and I found to be quite interesting. Some of them may be quirky, some may be disturbing, and some may be even inspirational. And we’re really going to do our best to relate it to best practices, though, as you know, we continue our quest of providing educational content to our listeners that we really hope helps you in your financial journey. But I think we have a fun one today.
Tracy Burke: 01:08
I absolutely. And I’ve been looking forward to this one in particular, Brian. Uh and I think everybody’s going to find this pretty intriguing. So we have five different, sort of unique uh statistics, plus we threw in a bonus one. Uh, five sounded better than six, right? When you’re putting out a number out there. So we’re just gonna go ahead and jump right into the first one. So this first one, Brian, if you invested $1,000 into Apple stock in its initial public offering back in 1980, what do you think the value of your Apple holding would be at this point? So $1,000 invested in $1,000 in Apple.
Brian Graff: 01:47
I’m honestly I’m not sure, Traje. I think it’s a lot of money and definitely more than I probably have in my wallet right now.
Tracy Burke: 01:53
I would think that’s the the answer. And if not, uh just keep a hand on your wallet because you would have roughly $2.5 million worth of stock right now if you bought a thousand dollars of Apple at the outset, you know, in initial public offering. Uh that’s assuming you reinvested dividends. Uh, but you know, the the point is that there’s a lot of people that are out there that are looking for that next Apple. And of course, we would love to stumble upon that, right? Uh, but I would venture to say it’s likely more about luck than skill, right? Um, and many will end up investing in a very disjointed manner if you’re thinking, well, all right, this you know, ABC company or XYZ company, hopefully that’s that next Apple stock, and you buy a little, you know, and it just doesn’t go anywhere. So uh, Brian, any any thoughts on a maybe a better approach than looking for that next apple?
Brian Graff: 02:50
Yeah, I’m not that lucky, Tracy. I’m not gonna find the next apple, and I know that. So, what I would recommend doing is to, you know, within your retirement portfolio, diversify, right? Spread your money out, uh, use dollar cost averaging, uh, utilize low-cost investments, uh, focus on the long term instead of trying to hit the next grand slam, right? When you do that, you know, you’ll still end up owning the next apple in your portfolio, albeit a much smaller and more reasonable slice. Okay, so that would be my recommendation is unless you’re just really, really, really lucky in everything in life, um, you know, use some of those uh time-tested strategies. Uh, number two, uh, as far as an interesting thing to look at today, Tracy, is we’re gonna examine playing the lottery versus the stock market. Did you know that the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot is roughly one in 292 million? Not very good odds. So you’re saying there’s a chance, right? Yeah, but uh, you know, history tells us that doubling your money though in the stock market and just kind of using the S P 500 index as a proxy, that usually does happen every seven to nine years, doubling your money in the market, assuming about an average annual rate of eight to ten percent. Now, those aren’t bad odds.
Tracy Burke: 04:05
Yeah, for sure. And and if we think about the winning the lotto, that’s that’s a sudden type of uh of an experience, right? And that’s that sort of get rich quick sensation, and and often why people you know play the lotto. Hey, I can be a you know billionaire, gazillionaire, whatever the the lotto’s at, you know, in in the next two days, you know. Uh that that can be captivating. Uh, but successfully navigating the stock market, on the other hand, it’s not a get rich quick, you know, sensation, right? It that requires patience and discipline. And I would just say that patience beats luck over 99% of the time. And again, it’s not sudden wealth, it’s it’s discipline. But when you’re playing the stock market, again, that’s the best way to build wealth over time. And if we think about the odds of success, so you know, if I go play the lotto, the chances of me winning, especially winning something substantial, extremely small, right? Most people go into that experience thinking or knowing that they’re just tossing money away um just for that small little chance. But most people lose all their money when playing the lotto. I would argue if we’re investing properly, everybody should have a positive experience over the long term. Again, if you practice that patience and discipline. What do you think, Brian?
Brian Graff: 05:32
Yeah, absolutely. And I think the key takeaway here is instead of playing the lotto on a regular basis, consider putting that same money into a regular investment strategy. I know maybe it’s not quite as much thrilling in the short term, but you know, use that dollar cost averaging approach, keep buying into the market, you know, different um periodic intervals of time, and you really will thank yourself later for having done that. I promise.
Tracy Burke: 05:55
Yeah.
Brian Graff: 05:56
Uh so the thing, third thing we’re gonna look at today is uh what we’re gonna classify as weird investments, Tracy. Uh so you know, as we we approach the holidays here, uh perhaps the the next one can stimulate some gift ideas, you know, if you’re struggling to find the perfect gift for your wife, Tracy, for example. Okay, so here, uh stay with me. So in 2020, someone who remains anonymous, believe it or not, paid five hundred and sixty thousand dollars for a pair of game-worn sneakers of Michael Jordan. Five hundred and sixty thousand dollars for used shoes, okay? Um, then in this past July, it’s 2025, someone spent 10 million dollars. 10 million. Okay, it’s actually 8.6 million euros, which converged to 10 million US dollars on an herma’s handbag. I hope I said that right. Herma’s handbag at an auction in Paris. I don’t know exactly what that is, an Herma’s handbag, but it sure sounds expensive.
Tracy Burke: 06:54
Well, Brian, I’m impressed that you can pronounce Herma’s correctly. That’s that’s that’s that’s awesome.
Brian Graff: 06:60
Did I, though? Are you sure? Okay.
Tracy Burke: 07:01
I I think you got it. Um and and on that topic, I I have a coworker that I think uh maybe the lifetime spending budget on shoes has been that $560,000 that that you’ve had there. Uh she’s always seems to be wearing uh new shoes all the time. But, anyways, luckily for me, uh for in terms of you know uh my my shopping for holidays for my wife, she normally puts together a wish list. So I take a look at the list. I always ignore like the most expensive light items on the list. You know, I cross those out and I focus on the lowest cost items. You know, I sort of sort it by cost. Uh so I guess what can I say? You know, husband of the year award, right?
Brian Graff: 07:40
Yeah, I don’t know. I think I might have a veto, Tracy. One year earlier in our marriage, uh, I bought my wife a vacuum cleaner for Valentine’s Day. Oh no, you know, we needed one, we really did. Uh it just happened to be February. I thought it was kind of funny. Uh, she was not amused, she was not amused at all. Lesson was learned, never did that again. So, anyway, back to the uh half a million dollar sneakers and $10 million handbag.
Tracy Burke: 08:03
Yeah. So, so of course, you know, naturally that sounds extreme to most of us, right? And can sound crazy to the average person. But, you know, some ultra-wealthy people do crazy purchases, uh often because of the status or the uniqueness, right? They want to be seen with these items or able to be bragging about them, right? Uh, but then you know, the other thing that I always think about wealth is also pretty relative. So just say in some dream world, I I’m worth $500 million. If I would spend one tenth of one percent uh on those sneakers that we talked about, roughly $500,000, um, you know, it doesn’t sound all that extreme. One tenth of one percent, right? Uh, but then on the other hand, if I have a million dollars and I spend five hundred plus thousand dollars on a pair of sneakers, you know, over 50% of my assets, that just doesn’t make a lot of sense, right?
Brian Graff: 09:04
Little bit excessive there, yeah.
Tracy Burke: 09:06
Yeah, a little bit. So I think it uh is all relative. But but I would say that the important thing to keep in mind is that you know it’s important to live within your own means, right? And we hear that a lot. You know, just be rational with the spending and just make sure it fits into your overall financial plan.
Brian Graff: 09:23
Yeah, so the next uh fun stat we’re gonna look at is the cost of everyday items. Uh so here’s the part of the episode where we turn back the clock and we talk about how much things used to cost and how outrageous the the cost is now. So, you know, I can hear these conversations playing out in my head in retirement communities throughout the country at this very moment, you know. You know, back in my day. Um but uh bear with me. I digress. So if you look at the average price of a house back in 1970, it was about $23,000. That’s right, the full house, not just the kitchen, $23,000. Now that same house might cost about $450,000, a 5.58% annual increase. Uh then we’ll look at a gallon of gas back in 1970, 36 cents. Can you imagine that? Now, depending where you are in a country, it could be as high as $3.50 or $3.75, even more, I’m sure, in certain places. So that’s about a 4.35% annualized increase. So, you know, Tracy, what do you what do you make of these numbers? You know, while both examples are above long-term inflation trends, are those increases outrageous to you?
Tracy Burke: 10:36
Well, if we think about it, you know, the the average price of the house, as you mentioned, um, that and that was a 5.5% annualized increase. Uh, it certainly seems high over these past 55 years. But the I think the the other thing we have to think about is what you’re buying, uh, the what what the the terminology average really means. The you know, the average size of homes have also increased significantly. Um in 1970, um, the the data shows that the average size of a home in the US was 1,500 square feet. Today it’s over 2,000 square feet. Sure. So if looking at cost increases per square foot, the you know, the higher cost of of today’s home, you know, inflation adjusted doesn’t seem as bad. Uh so you know, some of these things are in context. Uh gas, you know, that one is a little bit um, you know, easier comparison, right? You’re talking about a gallon of the same measurement there. Yeah. Uh, but you know, that fluctuates dramatically and and certainly will continue to do so. So you mentioned the word inflation, Brian, right? And I think, you know, here’s what’s important. Inflation is absolutely real. And I think you know, most of our listeners would agree, especially in recent years, going to the grocery store or other things. And we all feel it. Yeah, and and it definitely clearly, you know, impacts or affects our purchasing power over time. So, you know, what what’s the best way if we think about well, how can we combat inflation from an investment perspective and focusing on our investment portfolio? Um, you know, is the inclusion of equities, you know, and equities meaning stocks, right? Uh stocks over the long term expected long-term returns somewhere in that 8 to 10% uh range. And that certainly should outpace inflation by you know several percentage points and and also help us, you know, continue to build and compound uh the that future growth within the portfolio. Uh now we also know that you know some people, especially as you get further along in life, some people like to have sit on a lot of cash, right? And the return on cash almost always lags inflation. And bonds, you know, uh sometimes it’s tough to get excited about the return on bonds because that typically maybe exceeds inflation by a little bit over longer periods. And by no you know means, Brian, am I trying to say that you shouldn’t have cash or you shouldn’t have bonds? It’s important to have cash for that rainy day fund and your everyday needs. But it’s not a long, good long-term investment uh vehicle there. Uh on the other side of the coin, it doesn’t mean you should be 100% in equities either. Uh, but you know, some balance of equities, bonds, cash uh generally makes the most sense for for folks.
Brian Graff: 13:27
Yeah, I was just gonna throw in that same word balance, Tracy. Just like everything else in life, it’s all about balance, right? Yeah, absolutely. All right, so we got to number five here in terms of some statistics to look at. And we are going to now focus on stock market milestones. So just a few stock market milestone stats to throw at you. Um, the Tracy, do you know the largest single-day point gain in the Dow was 2963 back in just in April of 2025, very recently after the recent tariff announcement, which is about a 7.9% gain that day. However, historically, the largest percent gain was about 15.3% back in 1933, the largest daily gain. Um, the largest single-day point loss in the Dow was about 29.97 in March of 2020 when all those COVID shutdowns started to be announced, which was a 12.9% daily loss. Uh historically, the worst daily loss in the Dow was about 22.6% back in 1987. And that same 22% loss today would be over 10,000 points. So, what’s the story with all this data, Tracy? Break it down for us.
Tracy Burke: 14:43
Yeah, and of course, you know, numbers are all relative as well. You know, a 22% loss, I think you just said, would be worth over 10,000 points in a Dow today. Uh, I mean, that’d be catastrophic, right? Right. So uh it’s all relative, but volatility is of course the name of the game. And investing in the market, and many of our you know, listeners have invested over many years or many decades, right? And we all know that there’s you know, there’s shares of ups and downs. Uh however, however, over the long term, that’s that’s when investing really pays off. And and again, why people you know invest money in markets instead of putting money under the mattress for that that good that growth. So a couple, like to throw a couple other statistics that that always resonate, at least with me. If we think about the stock market, you know, you go into a a today in the stock market, whatever day you know we’re recording this, whatever day the the viewers are are listening to this, uh, there’s a 54% chance that the stock market will be positive today. Um historically, over the past about 100 years, 54% of trading days using the S P 500 index as sort of our target there have been positive. So just a smidge over you know half of the half of the experiences, right? But then if we elongate it to an annual basis, so how many years has the SP 500 been positive really over about the past hundred years that they’ve been really keeping statistics? It’s about every three out of four years. It’s 73% to be precise since the 1920s have been positive years in the stock markets. So again, we know the stock markets go up, we know they go down, and thankfully the statistics prove that they go up more than they go down. And, you know, same approach that we’ve been preaching for a long time. The key is to stay the course and not try to time the market, right? It’s just proved to be a fool’s errand over the years for those people who try to uh time the stock market.
Brian Graff: 16:56
Yeah, great stuff, Tracy. I tell long-term investors all the time, you got to take the good with the bad. Right. Know that, know that historically the good, as you just mentioned, always outweighs the bad. And that’s really what we’re we’re looking for. But you have to have that discipline again to to you know withstand those down years and not do anything drastic within your account. So, really, really good information. So we did mention, I think Tracy said early, we do have a bonus uh nugget for you here today. Um, and I guess we’ll call this one it’s never too late. The wealth of Warren Buffett. So this this bonus one is quite staggering, and I I certainly find it to be inspirational. And it is, did you realize, Tracy, that over 99% of Warren Buffett’s wealth, which is pretty massive, uh happened after the age of 50?
Tracy Burke: 17:42
Yeah, that that is pretty impressive, isn’t it? If you really think about it. And you know, I think about you know, Brian, both you and I recently crossed that 50-year-old milestone. So perhaps it’s not too late for us to amass a fortune as well. What do you think?
Brian Graff: 17:56
Are you are you age-shaming me now, Tracy? You have to put that in maybe a little bit.
Tracy Burke: 18:01
You are you are older than I am, after all. Yeah, right.
Brian Graff: 18:04
A little closer to retirement, we’ll take it.
Tracy Burke: 18:06
But you know, if we think about what does this stat tell us, you know, that really time and compounding do work if you’re patient and old enough, right? If we think about it. So again, building wealth is, you know, I always akin to it. It’s sort of like a slow cooker. Um, nothing seems to happen. You know, when I put stuff in a slow cooker, you keep looking and every five, 10 minutes open up and seeing what’s going on. Nothing seems to happen for hours, and then all of a sudden, it’s time for dinner. So wealth is a lot like that slow cooker.
Brian Graff: 18:39
Love it, love it. All right, everybody, as we wrap up today, you know, let’s talk about some action items as we always do. So, you know, in the statistics we covered today, that hopefully you enjoyed, uh, we worked in some fundamental financial and investment concepts uh that we’ve been preaching for some time now, Tracy. And can you just briefly recap those with our listeners?
Tracy Burke: 18:58
Absolutely. So diversification, we talk about that a lot. Dollar cost averaging into portfolios. And again, just to explain that, that’s what most people do in your 401ks. You know, you’re putting some in every paycheck, right? That’s what we call dollar cost averaging. Uh, focusing on cost, low-cost investments, focusing on the long term, uh, living within your means when you’re spending, you know, and you’re not trying to keep up with the Joneses or your neighbors or so so uh so forth like that. Uh, and then some equities, you know, having equity exposure to combat in inflation, not timing the stock market, uh, and you know, the patience and discipline. We talked about that a few times here today, and just having that throughout it. So, all those items that we just you know talked through, those are things we can control, right? Uh, so it’s so important to focus on what we can control and sort of ignore things that are outside of our control.
Brian Graff: 19:56
Well said, Tracy. Absolutely, all great uh concepts to remember. So we will wrap up for today. I can’t believe, again, it’s been a full year. I’ve had a great time, Tracy, on this podcast with you. Looking forward to more episodes next year. But I want to remind our loyal listeners uh, again, thanks so much for tuning in to these podcasts. But reach out, reach out to us with any questions or comments you have. You can hit us up at podcast at conradseagle.com. As always, we are here to help. We are eager to help. And remember to share this podcast with your friends, family members, coworkers. And if you’re so inclined, give us a five-star review and certainly subscribe if you haven’t already. Happy New Year, everybody. Uh, take care.
Intro/Closing: 20:39
Thank you for tuning into today’s show. The Real Talk Retirement Show is created and produced by Conrad Siegel, an advisory firm that specializes in helping people prepare for retirement and beyond. If you want to learn more about our work or meet the team, you can visit conradsegal.com. Information on this show is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment, tax, or legal advice. Before making decisions, you should consult with the appropriate professionals for advice that is specific to your situation.