As I’ve been watching the 2026 World Cup, I can’t help but draw a few comparisons to the financial planning that we do and the way we approach investments in your portfolio.
The United States does not always emerge as the victor.
The U.S. Men’s National Soccer Team (USMNT) team started the tournament in strong form, not only qualifying for the knockout rounds, but winning their entire group. The momentum continued through the Round of 32, claiming another win against Bosnia and Herzegovina, before falling to Belgium.
While the loss was disappointing, heightened by the fact that it was on our home turf and just following our nation’s 250th anniversary, it reminds us of our need to diversify our investment portfolios. Domestic equities have been on a strong run over the last several years, and more recently international markets have been a bright spot. Maintaining a well-diversified portfolio of equity and fixed income, domestic and international, casts a broad net to ensure that there is exposure to the winners regardless of who that is or where they emerge from (as of 6/30/2026, 37% of the world’s global stock market value resides outside the USA).
Picking winners is easier said than done.
This year’s tournament had a whirlwind of surprises. Here are a few:
- Germany (four-time winner and one of the favorites at the start of the tournament) was upset by Paraguay
- The Netherlands lost to Morocco
- And all-time World Cup winner Brazil was upset by Norway
Matches like these are why sports are a joy to watch. But they are bracket breakers, whether it’s the World Cup or March Madness!
Volatility and roller coaster emotions are fun for sports spectators, but not so much for investors. In the history of the World Cup, there have only been two instances of a single country emerging with back-to-back victories (Brazil 1962 and 1958, Italy 1938 and 1934). Similarly, building a portfolio based on past performance or chasing the “hot” sector is likely to end in disappointment. This is why we not only emphasize broad diversification but caution against individual security selection. While an individual team (or stock) might look strong, they can fail to reach their fans’ (or investors’) expectations. Owning many individual stocks within a mutual fund or exchange-trade fund helps to mitigate this disappointment.
Victors play the long game, managing risk and deploying a fine-tuned strategy
Winning the World Cup title is a lengthy process beginning long before the tournament itself. To be eligible for the main tournament of forty-eight teams, each nation must qualify by winning smaller tournaments. From there, a team must perform well enough in the group stage to advance into the remaining thirty-two teams for the knockout round. Then, after winning five games in perfect succession a team earns the title of World Cup champion.
It takes more than pure talent to win the World Cup. A winning team is based on a long-term strategy of match preparation, physical fitness, execution, mental toughness, and communication, with the flexibility to make changes based on current game conditions. A successful long-term financial plan is built in a similar fashion based on your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance coupled with the patience and discipline to stay invested through the ebbs and flows of the market. Just like gametime decisions, your financial plan will adapt to your evolving lifestyle.
It is a privilege to be a member of the Conrad Siegel Wealth Management team, walking alongside clients as a full-time fiduciary and acting as an objective set of eyes.
Did you enjoy watching the World Cup? Have questions about your financial situation? Send our team a message.